Forecasting Harmful Algal Blooms in California

This project involves development of California HAB forecasting application to inform when and where toxic blooms of algae occur to better inform management decisions. The project generates nowcast and forecast products routinely and in a pre-transitional demonstration of operational predictions of toxigenic blooms and domoic acid toxins along the central California coast by merging: 1) ecological/statistical models to 2) existing hydrodynamic model simulations (ROMS), 3) enhanced satellite imagery (MODIS-Aqua with DINEOF), 4) and community (Cal-HABMAP)/crowdsourced (JellyWatch and Marine Mammal Center) observations. Highly reliable data on marine mammal strandings from domoic acid (DA) toxicosis are provided by the Marine Mammal Center (TMMC) and serve as an important source of matchups for broad geographic attribution of the DA events. These near real-time validation data are provided by our collaboration with the JellyWatch and TempBreak communities to populate crowdsourced observations with marine mammal stranding data that serve as a proxy for offshore DA events. A close partnership has been established with NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) to test the new data product in an environment suited towards serving as the operational center.